A TICKET TO MARS AND NEW BRAIN INSIGHTS
SpaceScience: A Ticket To Mars
According to a “blue ribbon panel” reporting to the Office of Science And Technology Policy, we can’t afford a “manned” lunar program. The United States is emerging from a recession with a lot of bills and it has to reduce costs wherever it can.
If we can’t afford the moon, how can we afford Mars?
I don’t want to sound like a broken blog, but this isn’t the first time I’ve discussed the expensive conceit of sending humans to Mars. Quoting myself, “Throughout NASA’s history, there’s been considerable tension between those who believe in the symbolic importance of getting our human butts out there and those who feel that the astronomical (good word here) costs and barely manageable risks aren’t justified when robots are proving themselves so capable.”
Lawrence Klauss suggests that we can solve all this by making the trip to Mars one-way. In a 9/11 interview on NPR’s “Science Friday”, Klauss discussed the cost of sending humans to Mars and, rightly, in my opinion, brought up the advantages of robots. He said that robots will continue to improve and, by the time we are ready for the trip, their abilities may rival those of human astronauts.
So that’s what we should do, right? Send robots?
Well no. Instead of reaching the obvious conclusion, Klaus, feels the pull of putting boots on red sand and thinks there’s GOTTA be a way. Why not, he says, do a one-way mission to establish the first permanent space colony? This, he says, makes sense since it would cost less to deliver the human payload and could lighten the required radiation shielding. A return trip might be fatal anyway because of Gamma ray exposure. So make it one-way.
ScienceAin’tSoBad respectfully doesn’t get it.
What about the unbelievable ethical implications of exposing a crew to HALF of a fatal dose of radiation? Will we prohibit transmissions beyond the first joy-filled 3 months so that we don’t have to watch them sicken and die? Would this colony, once established, have hopes of generationalism – bearing children and rearing the first native Martians? If so, the radiational offspring of the colonists may give us a chance to communicate with REAL Martians. Two heads, eye stalks, and obsidian skin.
Chopping out the return trip, although it does simplify the shielding design and reduce the bulk of the rocket, is unlikely to reduce the costs enough to make the numbers work but, even if it did, that doesn’t justify putting human beings at such risk.
Besides. The “One Way To Mars” idea only blurs the absurdity of a human program. We should focus on building great robots. By the day of the expected human landing, maybe robots will be capable of experiencing the joy of watching the sun set over the earth. They could be our true, if improbable, descendants.
And we wouldn’t have to watch them crawl around on the rim of a crater, dying from radiation poisoning.
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 3
Neurobiology: Focusing The Brain
I hope you have a well-behaved mind.
Many of us don’t.
My own mind skitters out from under me whenever it chooses.
What’s different about those with great concentration and those who are easily distracted? Some new research suggests it may be related to how large your “working memory” is. Working memory is believed to be a type of short-term memory which is used to temporarily store things while you’re thinking. It determines the number of thoughts you can keep “alive” at the same time.
For example, if you’re late for dinner, you can think “Man! She’s gonna kill me!” AND think “but I better not forget to stop for gas on the way”.
According to a study from the University of Oregon, people with large working memories are less easily distracted.
It makes sense, doesn’t it?
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 7
Unless the problem is due to Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.
While it varies in its severity, ADHD can make it difficult to concentrate and, in general, manage your time.
A study at the Brookhaven National Laboratory involved 97 people. It found that the 53 subjects with ADHD (the rest were controls) had abnormally low dopamine in the parts of the brain that control reward and motivation. And it found that such people appear to need extra stimulation which they don’t always seek out in the healthiest ways – sometimes overeating or abusing drugs or alcohol. In other words, immediate gratification seemed to win out over other things.
There are ways to increase dopamine levels in the brain. Some involve drugs (and side effects) and some do not. But this would seem to be a great thing to explore (carefully).
Good paper. More work needs to be done to solve this problem.
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 9
RHEOENCEPHALOGRAPHY.
Brain_Research:rheoencephalography
As you can imagine, the war in Iraq resulted in lots of head trauma – the most since Vietnam. But changes in how major head wounds are treated, more attention to relieving internal pressure, and a tendency to remove debris only when it is truly necessary, have greatly reduced the death rate from these horrible wounds to about 5% which, considering the severity of many of these injuries is unbelievable.
This doesn’t mean that the victims get their lives back. Recovery from head trauma can be slow and difficult. However, the chances of a good recovery can go up with the use of a “new” technique I just learned about, called rheoencephalography (REG).
For wounded soldiers with blast injuries to the head, the presence of shrapnel often interferes with conventional instruments like CAT scans, MRI, and Doppler ultrasound. This is where rheoencephalography has been so incredibly helpful.
Measuring brain blood flow, REG makes it possible for medical personnel to noninvasively determine when the regulation of blood flow in the brain goes wrong – as it often does with the bleeding that’s typical of these blast injuries. Even WITHOUT bleeding, the effect of the blast can mess up the brain’s ability to effectively regulate the flow of blood. A breakdown of regulation (technically, autoregulation) can be, and often is, fatal.
I talked to Doctor Mike Bodo about the uses of REG. Dr. Bodo is a Senior Scientist who, through the American Registry of Pathology,works for the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research .
“Mike, is this a new instrument? I don’t believe I ever heard of it before.”
“Not at all. The technique was first developed in the 50′s. I first started working with REG in Hungary where I grew up.
“About twenty years ago, the Hungarian government financed a study to systematically look for individuals who were at risk for stroke. The instrument on which the study was based was called Cerberus, named for the multi-headed dog in Greek mythology that guards the gates of Hell. The metaphor refers to arteriosclerosis and its many risk factors such as hypertension, smoking, and high cholesterol. With so many possible causes, it is not enough to follow just one cause – thus, all those heads.
“At the time of the study, there was still some question about whether rheoencephalography, which actually measures the electrical resistance between the electrodes, was an accurate indication of cranial blood volume change. It turns out, however, that nothing else can detect brain arteriosclerosis so effectively and so early. Not even close.
“According to this large study, even Doppler ultrasound isn’t as effective in detecting brain arteriosclerosis as REG.”
I asked him where the greatest need for REG is.
“Without a doubt, the greatest need is as a screening tool for early indications of stroke. We call this ‘primary prevention’.
“I can tell you, from my own professional experiences, that stroke is an awful disability. It’s really frustrating to see the damage it can do, to know that a method of early detection exists, and to see this capability languishing because the focus is on more glamorous but less deadly diseases.
“And, by the way,” he said, “I’m not surprised that you haven’t heard of rheoencephalography. It’s virtually unknown to the public and even less so to the medical community. Ironically, medical procedures which are identical, in principal, to rheoencephalography ARE in use but they are known as venous phlebography and thoracic impedance measurement”
Mike, it turns out, along with his wife Janice, is a major advocate of this technique and has dedicated much of his life to making others aware of its potential. I asked him what other uses have been found for REG.
“You would be surprised how many there are. Because it is noninvasive and doesn’t require a tremendous amount of training to use, it has found uses in areas as varied as determining the degree of damage that alcohol causes to the brain’s blood vessels, to measuring the “neuroprotective” quality of new drugs. The main obstacle to its widespread use in medicine is that rheoencephalography has not yet evolved the degree of standardization that techniques such as EEG and ECG have. For that to happen, someone has to create an FDA approved medical instrument that integrates the components of the system into a smaller and more easily deployed medical instrument.”
ScienceAin’tSoBad will track keep an eye on this promising instrument. Stay posted.
MORE DETAIL
According to the FDA, a Rheoencephalograph is a device used to estimate a patient’s cerebral circulation. For further details REG was the primary instrument used in this study. Also see Bodo M and REG .
Another Step In Hearing Research
Photo
(modified) from
morguefile
HearingResearch: Restoring Hair Cells
OK. It’s getting exciting.
John Brigande, of the Oregon Hearing Research Centre in Portland, (Centre? Isn’t that a little pretentious for Portland) has implanted a gene and demonstrated growth of hair cells in the inner ear.
Functional and quite normal hair cells.
Mouse embryos are, no doubt, pleased.
The article has a trying-not-to-get-too-excited tone, emphasizing that there’s still a lot of work to do. While conceding that it is no longer a “pipe dream” to talk about medical solutions to hearing loss, Mark Downs of the Royal National Institute for Deaf People made it clear that he is not about to get drawn into a discussion of when human trials could begin.
Science Ain’t So Bad happens to agree with the cautionary words.
There would seem to be numerous ways that this can all go wrong – turning into tumors. failing after 6 months, and, obviously, something different about mouse ears.
Still, if only for the little frisson of excitement (and for, seemingly, careful work in the best traditions of science), ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 8 .
Automotive
Cataracts, Artificial Joints, Heart Attacks, Self-delusion, And Detecting Life
Photography by me
SCIENCE AIN’T SO BAD RATINGS (NEW)
I write about announcements, discoveries, and studies.
Since the point of this blog is science, and since the point of science is to weigh evidence and reach conclusions, I’ve introduced a ScienceAin’tSoBadRating which accompanies each of the studies.
I’m NOT trying to tell you what to think. That WOULD be ridiculous. As ridiculous as suggesting that I should be trusted to rank the work of contributors in areas as diverse as psychology, physics, entomology, and biochemistry.
But why not let you know my personal (though sometimes foolish) reaction to exciting new developments? If nothing else, it gives you another reason to comment on the blog and straighten me out.
Ratings are on a scale of 1 to 10. In extreme cases, a zero may creep in.
Ophthalmology: EYE DROPS FOR CATARACTS
Cataracts can be stopped. Maybe reversed. A fascinating and encouraging study led by Engric Rizzerlli. Side effects seem minimal. But the work hasn’t been replicated yet (an important part of science) and, so far, the medical community hasn’t embraced the idea. Obviously, you should check with your doctor and weigh what he/she says.
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 6.5
Orthopedics: ARTIFICIAL JOINTS THAT WON’T LET YOU DOWN
Imagine receiving an artificial hip. Surgery, recuperation, complications maybe. Then LOTS of physical therapy.
And then, the thing fails and has to be repaired. Yikes!
At Tel Aviv University. a new method of coating the surface of implants seems to have greatly improved the likelihood that implants won’t fail. Great news for patients receiving artificial joints.
This is only an animal study; you would never know from the article, would you? But the study involves sacrificing the test subject which, I am told, is considered very unprofessional where said test subject is a member of the human race.
When this technique hits the clinic, we will see if it is as good as it seems. But it sounds promising.
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 8
Cardiology: CURING A HEART ATTACK
Like lightening, a heart attack can come out of a clear blue sky and leave you dead. If you do survive, your heart is damaged for good. But it is now understood that heart tissue does regenerate at a very, very slow rate. And it’s possible, using stem cells, to increase the turnover rate and actually heal the damage. Course, you need a ready supply of stem cells – a big problem. But knowing that stem cell therapy CAN repair a flawed heart muscle offers a clue for new apporaches.
This effort, described in the journal “Cell“, uses a substance called “growth factor” to speed things up.
Another approach: bone marrow transplants. Also a long way to go.
This is “cool research” but it isn’t known if it is safe yet and much more work needs to be done. So..
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 4
Psychology: PEOPLE CAN BE RATIONAL. OCCASIONALLY.
Science Ain’t So Bad does its best to excite people about “critical thinking”, about evaluating evidence, about using our somewhat unreliable brains (Yes, I WILL speak for myself!) to sift through things and evaluate what people want us to believe.
According to a study in the Psychological Bulletin, I have my work cut out for me. Apparently people wanna believe what they believe and aren’t very open to ideas that would make them change their minds. Normally, they look for “like-minded views” which are much preferred over “the truth” which can be kinda upsetting.
This study is an analysis of 91 studies, 8000 study participants. That’s a lot.
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 9
Astrobiology: LIFE HAS A CERTAIN LOOK
We humans have been looking for company. In case you haven’t heard.
The search for alien life is slow and tedious. Sometimes it feels like we’ve been looking for a lost contact lens on the floor of a train station. After years on our knees, we’re losing hope.
But Thom Germer (and others at NIST) had a truly cool idea for a “life detector”. He thinks that life, if it is present on a planet, will reflect light in a certain way. The approach is based on “chirality” or handedness.
If you look at your left hand and compare it to your right hand, you get the idea. Chemical bonds have similar “handedness”. Germer realized that things that reproduce (living things, including us) tend to have a consistent chemical nature and, therefore, the otherwise random handedness of molecules would, on planets with life, have a greater consistency. And light from such a planet would be detectably different.
This is EXTREMELY provocative and brilliant. Unfortunately, it is also highly speculative.
ScienceAin’tSoBadRating = 2
BREAKTHROUGH ON BOMB DETECTION
Photography by Tela Chhe under a creative Commons License
SurveilanceTechnology: DETECTING SUICIDE BOMBERS
If I ever start a “Politics Ain’t So Bad” blog (Don’t count on THAT!), I’ll go into more detail, but it doesn’t take a political genius to figure out that suicide bombing’s a bad thing. It’s also a frustrating thing because it’s so hard to defeat.
I know it sounds strange, but some undergaduates at the University of Michigan have, supposedly, created a cheap array of sensors that can identify suicide bombers remotely. With more testing, maybe it can be commercialized and sold to the Pentagon at ridiculously inflated prices.
SubstanceAbuse: MODERATE DRINKING
If you’re on a quest for eternal truth, you can skip the scientific journals in which yesterday’s orthodoxy is today’s trash. Established scientific verities like Newton’s laws, are never safe. So, although the idea that moderate drinking is good has had a long run, that “well established” fact is being shot down by a sociologist at the University of California.
But please don’t sober up on my account. Even a casual review of the literature reveals an impressive array of apparent benefits to be had from a LIMITED amount of imbibing.
Besides. You think tea’s safe?
Cancer: VERY HOT BEVERAGES
Tea. Let it brew please. If hot tea can damage your throat, what about other liquids such as coffee or soup?
OnlineSystems: IMAGINATION CENTRAL
The housing crisis came out of nowhere.
Some crises , like 9/11 and Katrina, just can’t be predicted. Or so claim those responsible. But, you know what? Every single one of these crises WERE foreseen. By someone.
A novel was written about airliners being used as weapons. And editorials were written about the potential for disaster that lay hidden in the levies of New Orleans.
But the foreseeing was over here and the policy making was over there.
No connection.
Science Ain’t So Bad wonders if there’s a way to link up our private prophets with our public authorities?
Could ideas be solicited online? Cash for crash? Could a system be developed for determining the most accurate prediction of a disaster? Maybe, also, a way to call this to the attention of those who can do something about it? Perhaps it could have a board of ombudsmen, each with strong professional ties to particular sectors. How this would work, exactly, I do not know. But I bet there’s a way to do this and I would welcome your thoughts.
Medical Technology: SURVIVING THE HOSPITAL
I’ve talked about Sepsis before. It’s a very dangerous immune cascade triggered by an infection. Docs need to be quick and lucky-as-crap to avoid losing a patient.
This, from Vanderbilt University University Medical Center could be very important in managing these cases.
Information Technology: GOOGLE CHROME (MORE)
I’ve been discussing Google’s plans for Chrome with Alan Wild, a very knowledgeable IT professional (and friend) in Rhode Island, and a great supporter of this blog. He suggested that I include in this post a recent email.
Me (to Alan):
From more reading, I think I figured out where Google is going with Chrome and it is interesting.
The idea (as I understand it) is this. Google hopes to do something really radical. There’s a lot of talk about computing being done “in the cloud” (on the Internet) instead of on the desktop. And Google already has a lot of apps that are out there which, I suppose, it is now going to bulk up. Its Google Docs might emerge as a full fledged equivalent of MS Office. And so forth.
So I think Google’s idea is to limit the computer to being, mostly, a host for a browser (though it would be able to control peripherals such as printers, CDs, etc.). Pretty much ALL your applications and your data would live “in the cloud”. Obviously, this does move the security issues “out there” too which means that it that it would be pointless to attack your computer with viruses and spyware and it greatly reduces the need for you to buy a powerful and expensive computer.
Before Google can sell this idea, it has to show that its “out there” security can be better than security on your own system. It must have some hot ideas that it plans to announce on that front.
ADDED AFTER-THE-FACT
Incidentally, there seems to be some confusion between Android, Googles new operating system for smartphones, and Chrome, its declared-but-not-yet-seen operating system for netbooks, etc.
If I’m right, users of Chrome, will find themselves working on documents “in the cloud”. This if fine for a user who is on a conventional computer or even a wifi-connected box. But, if the user is connect via a cell phone which includes charges for data when you’re working on the WEB, he/she might not be happy about the “cloud solution”.
Android may well offer a different focus then Chrome and it probably should.
The vastness of Google. The smallness of us.
Image lifted (obviously) from the real McCoy
Google is a force of nature sweeping though our culture and fundamentally changing us. It’s creative and audacious. And it grows like a fungus.
Its search engine is so widespread that it shocks when, as in China, it is only the number TWO choice behind a national favorite (Baidu, in China).
Its library of books and other materials is galactic in size and is gobbling reading matter like a virtual black hole. And, as an advertising medium, it left its competitors behind a long time ago.
Gmail is dominant.
Of course it is.
Customized by its gadgets and themes, iGoogle is a swiss army knife of a home page and a consistent starting point for the day. No matter where or how you get to the Internet, many – and this includes me – find it indispensable.
Chrome, its fairly new browser, is catching on fast and has added drivers to become a browser/operating system. Microsoft won’t be happy.
Obviously, you Bing Google at your peril.
Google Maps, Google Video, Google News, Google Voice, Google Reader, Google Earth (which will still be “cool” even when the iPhone gets overtaken by something else), Google Calendar, Picassa (photos). And Google Health preempts some of the healthcare ideas currently being slung around Washington
This blog? It’s hosted on Google’s “blogger”. Which is free.
Of course.
GOOGLE DOCS
Like most of its stuff, Google Docs is simple to use. And free.
With Docs, you’re working in “the cloud” – meaning that your applications and your data are secured on the Internet by your new best friend. And that WOULD be Google – who you, implicitly, trust to do the right thing.
Google Docs consists of Document (word processing), Spreadsheet, Presentation (slides and such) and Forms which offers a way to easily (of course) create interactive questionnaires which can be mailed or added to your own sites. The answers to the questions are combined for you into a nice spreadsheet. And there’s a built-in graphical “summary”.
You can “share” the Spreadsheet, Document, or Presentation you’re working on with others to develop things together in a very natural way.
IN YOUR POCKET TOO
Don’t be TOO surprised if Google’s Android operating system runs your next phone. It is now proliferating all over the place.
It isn’t practical to list all things Google. Or to explain the potential importance of each of the applications. Without much hoopla, interesting and creative online programs appear in “Google Labs“, migrating, eventually, to the list that starts at the top of the browser spilling onto another long page.
WHAT ARE WE DEALING WITH, ANYWAY?
Synergy. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
Is Google blessed among American Corporations? Are those who turn their faces against Google doomed to googling in Hell? Is Microsoft the Father, Google the son, and Apple the Holy Ghost? Truly and verily, is Google ubiquitous, omniscient, and all powerful?
Yeah. Probably.
But we seem to be better off for it. Some may fear it, but I am happy to have the benefits and am not complaining.
OUR BRAINS ON GOOGLE
Getting information has always been important to survival. It’s our edge. Speech defined us. Writing was a good step forward. And Gutenberg’s printing thingee was a big help too.
NOW WHAT?
In a blink, almost all of this planet’s information is (or soon will be) available.
If you know how to Google it.
Google gives us tools. It self-modifies as it grows to work better for us. Nothing else can quite focus and manage the Internet the way it can. Those of us humans who can best benefit from Google’s offerings may be just a little more successful.
Call it unnatural selection?
Whatever it is, Google has become our partner. A co-evolving force of not-quite-nature which is vast, powerful, yet casual and almost informal.
DISTILLING IT ALL DOWN
What does it mean for us?
I dunno.
But I’m thinking about it.
A Soul In A Jar
Image by
In 1920 Dr. Duncan MacDougall weighed dying patients before and after death. He thought that the difference in weight was the soul. There was even a film about it - 21 grams. Others weren’t able to repeat the measurement and, from a scientific perspective, the soul remains unproven.
MacDougall took an idea that was (and still is) widely believed – that a mysterious organ called the soul is the seat of human cognition – and attempted to prove it using scientific principles.
What he did may sound silly to some, but it was an authentic search for the truth. He didn’t seem to recognize that his measurements were small compared to the error in his equipment but Science Ain’t So Bad applauds his effort.
How many today still believe in the acceptance of the elusive bit of tissue called the soul? Hard to say. Because what people believe is complex. Many people do believe in souls. And most would worry about a scientist or a doctor who showed them one in a jar.
Real. And not real.
Most Americans believe in the existence of a “Higher Being”. And pray at least occasionally. And believe there’s a “better place” to “pass on to”. But most also believe the evidence of their own eyes. And want their kids to study science. And believe in logic.
Is religion an impediment to science?
In this country where approximately 85% of the people believe in “something or other”, rapid developments in science and technology are the norm. Us poor bloggers can’t keep up. If this is how religion impedes science, I would hate to see the unimpeded version.
It is true that some religious individuals seem fixated on science in a bad way. And some adherents of science don’t trust religion. But the neighborhood’s gonna’ be OK.
So.
You know those studies which show that praying can help you if you’re sick? People who get prayed for do better? It’s called “intercessory prayer”. A study published in The Journal Of Religion says that even the best of these – the ones that try to do everything right – don’t.
Conclusion. These studies aren’t getting us anywhere. Pray if it helps your heart. Don’t forget the pills.
Parallel Universes:
Flight Data Recorders. A Radical Solution
EngineeringDesign: AIR FRANCE FLIGHT 447
Frustrating.
The Flight Data Recorders of Flight 447 are in the ocean. When the batteries for its “pingers” run down, that it.
Gone.
I suggested, last time, that the data in those “Black Boxes” could have been broadcast or “streamed” to a receiving station (perhaps via satellite) for later use. My very knowledgeable nephew, Sean, questions the practicality of such a scheme. He doesn’t think “the bandwidth is there” But the Managing Director of the NSTSB seems to think something like that may be technically/scientifically possible.
If the “Black Box data” for the Air France flight could have been thus transmitted and stored, how would things be different now?
We would certainly know more. In fact, we might well have had enough information to begin reconstructing the accident without having to wait for recovery operations. Even more important, we might have captured the last known GPS coordinates of the airplane.
Had it come down in one piece, we would know where to go. Exactly where.
The Air France accident was probably unsurvivable. But, in some wrecks, knowing an exact location immediately could make a big difference.
I have not been able to get an “on the record” response from the Airline Pilots Association.
Not that I blame them. Science Ain’t So Bad isn’t NBC. But I continue to wonder if pilots are ready to allow in-flight data (and, maybe, voice communications) to escape the confines of the cockpit with all the implications for later scrutiny and second guessing.
What about airlines? How do they feel about a huge cache of discoverable records just waiting for the lawyers to find them on “discovery”?
Practical concerns vs safety. Technical achievement vs cost.
For now, the Black Boxes remain.
EarthquakeRescue: Sonic Beacon
See if you can recognize the very famous actor in this video which shows my team’s approach to the problems of earthquake survival.
Deafness & Hearing Loss: A REMARKABLE INFORMATION SOURCE
This week, I discovered a free, weekly newsletter which is focussed on hearing loss and deafness. Edited by Larry Sivertson, it is carefully crafted, with a great mix of science and practical information. It’s called HOH-LD News. If you’re interested, send an email. HOH-LD-News-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Diabetes: TYPE 1. A CURIOUS DISCOVERY OF SOME REAL IMPORTANCE
This may be a comfort for people with Type 1 diabetes (recently discussed here). Vitamin C. Doggone!
And I’m not neglecting Type 2.
Coming
Stroke: DETECTING STROKE BEFORE IT HAPPENS
I’ve been having discussions with Dr. Michael Bodo about some intriguing work he’s doing that has implications for brain health. Maybe early detection/prevention of stroke.
Coming.
Airbus A330, Health Insurance, And A Bird’s Nest
Photograph
Biology: BIRD’S NEST
Sue and I watched a robin build a nest outside our window, lay her eggs, and nurture them. After the nest was abandoned, we carefully removed it.
I expected a bunch of haphazard twigs. But this was designed by smart little flappers. I betcha at least one of them had an engineering degree.
It was almost perfectly round. And the sides were a composite construction that’s firm, light and insulated. The materials were, no doubt, scrounged from the area around the nest. Birds are improvisors. Your pet’s hair is likely to wind up in a nest along with a touch of spider web for its sticky strength.
Nature is spectacular. Even in simple things.
A NEST
Engineering Design: AIR FRANCE FLIGHT 447
Air France’s Airbus A330 disappeared over the Atlantic Ocean on its way to Paris this week. This is a reminder that we don’t really “conquer nature” but live hopefully around its edges. If an engineer designs for a 10 year storm, a 100 year storm can still show up. No matter how great the design, there’s always SOME possibility of a meteor, a rogue wave, an earthquake, a hurricane, or a tsunami. Flight 447 may have run into winds that were simply outside of its design parameters. One theory has it that lightening disabled the weather radar (which can’t be fully protected) just as the airplane was approaching monumental weather systems. Complicated by known problems with its air speed instrumentation, and without radar, it may have been blind to the thunderheads ahead of it. This may have been a “rogue wave” of the sky.
As of this writing, the black boxes have not been found and the investigation is continuing. But some critical data was received from an “automatic system” which provided important clues as to what may have happened.
An automatic system that can send data back?
According to Wikipedia, a system called ACARS was introduced by the airline industry in 1978 which sends a limited amount of telemetric data back automatically.
The idea of blackboxes seems SO clumsy and old fashioned. Couldn’t this ACARS system be expanded so that all the flight data currently collected in black boxes would be transmitted to a collection point? Why search deep oceans and snow covered mountains for lost black boxes after an air disaster, when a continuously streamed high speed data link could be fed back for later analysis? The Airline Pilots Association may view such a thing as a threat to its membership because some of this data could be used in disputes involving a pilot.
I won’t rant. I won’t rant. I won’t rant. (But maybe you would like to comment?)
Writing about science is writing about people. And caring about people. Science Ain’t So Bad offers its very sincere condolences to those who were affected by this horrible accident. Each case – each family, each close friend – is a tragedy unto itself.
Economics of Medicine: MEDICAL INSURANCE COSTS PLUNGE?
There’s a “breakthough” in cancer every time you breathe. The air is crackling.
There’s so much this month that I won’t even try to summarize here but will save it for a separate post (or two or three). But think about this. What happens if, after all these years of seemingly inching along, we really do the thing – SLAY the terrible beast of cancer?
Could happen.
I don’t blame you if you’re skeptical. But in the next 5 to 10 years, I hope to write a lot of articles. One of them may start with “I told ya!’”
And, while we’re imagining good stuff, let’s say we kill off Alzheimer’s too (which is yet another long article that I will be writing). Will healthcare costs STILL keep going up and up and up? As honest-to-God cures start to arrive for cancer and dementia, the cost escalator could be thrown into reverse. Costs could (is such a thing even possible?) fall.
Many of you – those who feel we’re dealing with “simple greed” – won’t be impressed by my logic. Feel free to comment. I LOVE comments.
Economics: HANDICAPPING THE RECESSION
Randi Smekr is a zany young friend of ours who dresses like a space alien and dies her hair with – what is that stuff, anyway? food coloring? But she’s very bright and very curious about science. Today she explained to me why it’s much easier to get into a recession than to get out of one.
“Say you owned stock in a company.” Randi said, “which was worth $10,000 before this recession hit. And, say, the value of the stock has now been cut in half to $5,000.”
“So you’ve lost 50% of your investment,” she said. “To regain the value of those shares, it isn’t enough to regain 50%, you have to go up 100%. Therefore,” she explained, flipping her purple and green locks around, “It’s much harder to get back to where you were.”
“Is it?” I asked.“Suppose I had a tub with 100 gallons of water and I pumped half of it out. Fifty percent gone. Right?”
“Now I refill it right back to the same point. Hundred percent increase. Right?”
“Why didn’t it take twice as much energy to pump it back to its original level?”
I explained to her that, in order to compare the percentage change in two quantities you have to use a common base or the comparison is meaningless. It IS true that we tend to say I “made 50%” or “I lost 20%” comparing it to whatever the value was last. But you do have to be careful when you’re doing a comparison between TWO percentages.
Randi said I was just complicating things.
Since this is such a good story, I told it to one of my engineering friends, Arnie.
He agreed with Randi.
I told it to my wise Aunt Mildred.
She agreed with Arnie.
Now I’m explaining it to you. I suppose you will disagree too?
If you wish to leave comments on the blog, just scroll down to the end of this post. You will see where it says “Posted by David at.. “ and it will indicate how many comments are there. Click that and you can leave a comment too. Also, if you’re feeling REALLY generous, maybe you’ll answer a few quick questions (below) that’ll help guide my future postings.
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